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Climate Change Factoid - How Much is Too Much? (2 of a Series)
by Rich Albertson
This factoid is about how much extra CO2 in the atmosphere is too much. Just in case you are not completely up to speed on current atmospheric issues regarding CO2, permit me to briefly recap. For millions of years CO2 levels in the atmosphere have cycled between a low point of 180 parts per million (ppm) to a high of 280ppm, and then back again. It takes about 130,000 years to go from the low point to the high and then return to the low. The 1999 Vostok studies of Antarctic ice cores provided actual proof of this phenomenon over the past 800,000 years.
The Vostok studies are a year by year historical record of both the CO2 levels in the atmosphere and also the temperature at the Antarctic. The studies tell us that two hundred years ago, at the start of the Industrial era, when we began burning fossil fuel in earnest, atmospheric CO2 levels had recently arrived at its historically highest level of 280ppm. The studies also show that, as the level of CO2 was undergoing this gradual, slow, 100ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 density, the temperature at the Antarctic rose a total of 10º C (18º F). Modern humanity did not develop until the atmosphere had arrived at its warmest for millions of years. Today, as a result of our human activities, the CO2 level is now more than 390ppm, an increase of 110ppm (almost 40%) above the established historical high so, the obvious questions arise - is that a lot? Is it too much? How much, is actually too much?
The arithmetic is fairly easy. If, a natural increase of 100 ppm in CO2 levels produced a 10ºC increase in temperature, then you might argue convincingly that our man made increase of 110ppm should be expected to produce more or less the same increase in temperature - 10ºC. But (there always seems to be a but) we're just beginning to realize there's a big difference between the and now. Back then, when CO2 levels rose from 180ppm to 280ppm there was a lot of ice on the planet. You would think that heat absorbing ice probably held a much larger increase in heat down to that 10ºC figure. This time, as CO2 grows from 280ppm to 390ppm, there's not going to be any ice to absorb the extra heat that increase must be expected to produce. Here's why.
For the past two decades, actually about 17 years, the polar ice caps and the glaciers have been reported to be declining in size. That's because winter snowfalls have proven inadequate to replace the ice that had melted during the warmer months of each year. Also, over the same two decade period, atmospheric heat has been steadily increasing. The total increase in temperature so far, is 0.6ºC. The extra CO2 we added, is going to remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years until it is slowly absorbed by operation of the carbon cycle - so, it seems fair to say that this pattern of more heat and less ice has established itself as a permanent trend and will continue until all of Earth's ice is melted.
What does all of that mean? In my view, the inevitable melting of earth's ice must be considered as nothing less than a civilization ending event. It took only a 0.6ºC temperature increase to get this point and that's only 6% of the 10ºC, mentioned earlier, that history has told us to expect under our present circumstances. Without ice to absorb the growing heat it seems only reasonable to say that the temperature will probably increase well above 10ºC historical increase. I think it's a moot point. The changes in climate brought by this relatively small, early increase in temperature are considerable. Could we handle twice that? How about four times as much heat? Even if you say ten times you're still only 60% of 10ºC and that's the minimum heat growth we should expect. Obviously, if the ice is gone the whole equation worsens, immeasurably. I'm asking you - how well do you like your chances?
(Peer reviewed research, supporting the claims made in this factoid, can be found at the website)
Rich Albertson is a retired lawyer and long time amateur naturalist. He lives in Portland Oregon.
Albertson is primarily interested in planetary scope, natural systems and their interaction with the practices of modern humanity. Climate Change is one of many subjects involved in this area of interest.
About the Author
Albertson recently published a second book. In 1978, he published a 2,600 page, 4 volume research study entitled The Bio-Conversion of Waste to Resource. In 2009, Albertson published a 136 page book on Climate Change entitled, The Sky is the Limit - A Brief and Easy Explanation of Climate Change for Present and Future Voters. The Climate Change Factoid series is drawn from the book. If interested, you can learn more about the book at our website thecircleworks.org..
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